Originally Posted by
C5Drvr
Expect that to be a lot less on the earnings call. First, our burn rate just went way.up without CARES support. Second, no business will run down to zero cash before filing for bankruptcy. Estimates are AAL will have to file when they reach 8 billion. You can't reorganize, operate, and pay all the lawyers with zero cash and record low revenues. Third, the BK laws are not as generous to the company as the last time AAL took this carnival ride. So you 2022 estimate, yeah, cut that in half for the 8 billion cutoff and take a few more months off of that for the lack of government money now burning through the war chest. Why do you think they were so quick to furlough? Why did they bring an executive with BK experience onto the board? Why wouldnt APA answer a direct question about them retaining bankruptcy advisors during the BOS/LGA town hall in Sept? No way this lasts with current conditions until 2022. Spring 2021.Late summer with CARES.
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These are all valid points, I’m aware of the loan covenants, but I was planning on the growth continuing and them finding more ways to cut expenses, with the cares act extension being a wild card.
I don’t think it’s fair to call us out for being the only one to furlough, Delta is right behind us, and furloughing a larger number, and United took a deal that I don’t think would pass here.
I’m no financial expert, and am learning much of this on the fly, but I think there is still some hope here. I just hope there is enough cash flow for reorganization if that time comes.
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