Sort of.

What he's not taking into account is that in all probability rates won't be 12% by the time our debt comes due.

Half our debt is in aircraft financing which is long term and paid over time like a car payment. A few years ago GAAP changed to include leases in that figure as well. Those are set in stone.

The other half is comprised of interest plus a ballon payment at the end of the period. These have various maturity dates with some ($1b?) coming due in 2022/23 but the majority coming due in 2027 and beyond.

If things haven't recovered by 2027, there won't be an AA. In won't matter if we can or cannot refinance.

However, assuming things somewhat return to normal over the next year, rates will come down significantly and be more normalized. Maybe they won't be sub-4%, but they aren't going to be anywhere near 12 either.

Will AA return to profitability and be able to pay back all our debt while remaining competitive? Who knows. With Parker being on uppers for every crew news or interview he does it's hard to tell by body language if he believes what he's saying...

I lost $150k on AA stock.