A truer barometer of Wall Street sentiment on airlines might be the bond, rather than the stock, market.
Marketwatch says if a “blue wave” (Democratic sweep) is coming, you should be on the lookout for junk bonds. There are plenty of high yielding sub-investment grade (aka junk) bonds from Delta and United in the bargain bin.
One is a Delta Air Lines bond with a maturity date of 01/15/2026, a 7.375% coupon and yield-to-worst of 5.77% (CUSIP 247361ZZ4). But the bond is junk-rated at B+ by Standard and Poor’s with a negative credit watch. meaning that the rating agencies believe it bears a higher risk of default.
Risk-lovers might look at bonds from United Airlines Holdings. One maturing on 01/15/2025 (CUSIP 910047AK5) is trading below par, at 89.00, while offering a potential yield to maximum of 7.97%. The United bond is a junk-rated B, with a negative credit watch.
Fidelity has a handy list of ratings by bond ratings leaders, S&P, Moody’s and Fitch. The lowest “investment grade” rating from Standard and Poor’s is BBB-. The Delta bond is rated by S&P as four levels below “investment grade;” the United bond, five levels below.
Fitch lowered American Airlines ratings to B- in n September, noting, “The likelihood that air traffic will remain subdued for the next several years combined with American's heavy debt load create significant pressure on credit metrics.”