Originally Posted by
keysersose
I don't think Hunter is right this time. One of the lessons learned through the last round of bankruptcies is that the those who can stay out of bankruptcy are also huge beneficiaries in other ways. Southwest and Jetblue were able to grow leaps and bounds almost unimpeded for about five years. Then it became tough again as the new lean and mean legacies went on the hunt but that five years was huge for them.
So if AAL goes chapter 11, Do Delta and United want to shrink also in bankruptcy, albeit short term, or do they want to take advantage of AAL's weakness while they reorganize?
that is a good point. The first one into Bankruptcy could just chum the waters. Everyone else could just go into a frenzy scooping up all of their slots, planes and market share, basically making it impossible to survive.
Hunter didn’t say if one goes we all go but he did say one bad player can bring down the entire industry. How far down will an airline that keeps prices low and floods the market bring everyone else? That length of time and the damage inflicted may leave the others without a choice.