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Old 10-27-2020, 03:40 AM
  #68  
Voski
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Joined APC: Jul 2008
Posts: 606
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Originally Posted by Excargodog View Post
First of all, no hard one about it, just legitimate concern. Nor has it been “dozens and dozens of posts” (at least not on my part, haven’t really been monitoring the other guy). Nor have I been commenting on how you are certainly doomed to liquidation, although I think Chapter 11 is a real threat. Nor have I commented on “how bad it is here,” merely expressing concern about the financial state. And why do you think that concerns me?

Because American is the canary in the coal mine, that’s why. Do you understand the analogy?
We are all working in the same mine and NOBODY wants the canary to die, because it puts us all at risk.

Just as pattern bargaining affects us all in negotiating, a single bankruptcy may well trigger pressure on everybody - even additional bankruptcies - as other managements try to use that to push concessionary contracts on the rest of us. Seriously, do you doubt for a moment that will happen if AA were to go bankrupt? So no, nobody is dancing on your grave - at least I’m not - I’m hoping that you guys pull through this. But you don’t have to be a financial genius to realize that this pandemic is hurting a lot of businesses that - through no fault of their own - have seen revenues cut tremendously.

Ultimately the airline business itself WILL survive, but COVID has been a kick in the teeth to all of us and we are all worried. Anybody who isn’t worried doesn’t have a good understanding of the situation.
Well said.

The longer this goes on, the more the odds are seemingly insurmountable for AAG. Everyone is bleeding cash regardless because revenue per passenger right now is nil. It's all about who can stymie cash bleed while maintaining or even growing market share. Even still, any Ch. 11 (or God forbid a Ch. 7 scenario) bankruptcy is going to send shockwaves throughout the industry.
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