Thread: Lockdown Part 2
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Old 10-30-2020 | 04:24 AM
  #72  
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Originally Posted by germanaviator
Sweden has a population of ten million. It had just under 6000 Covid-related deaths to date. If Germany, population 83 million, had the same death rate as Sweden it would have around 50,000 Covid-related deaths. Instead it has just above 10,000 civid-related deaths to date.

To think that the Swedish approach would have worked elsewhere is a bit optimistic, I'm afraid. Sweden doubled their ICU-bed capacity during the first wave when deciding not to lock down. 80% of those beds were occupied at the peak earlier this year. That means the health system would have been overwhelmed had they not drastically increased ICU-bed availability.

Also: Everyone has access to "free" quality healthcare in Sweden. Not the case in the U.S. In Sweden veryone gets their salary paid even if they are absent form work due to symptoms. Not the case in the U.S.

I think you cannot just pick one aspect you like about a country's response without considering the relevant circumstances such as described above.

In the U.S. the uninsured without sick pay will continue to go to work at the meatpacking plant and spread the virus. In Sweden that's not the case.

Some people here in Germany say the same thing, that we should have done like Sweden. But Germany is ten times more densely populated and Sweden already has a five times higher death rate.

To those who say the lockdowns in Europe had no effect. That is wrong. They had the deselect effect at the time, then they were rightfully lifted and now, after the summer, cases are on the rise again. Makes sense with people spending more time indoors now compared to the summer.

I think we will see that the latest (partial) lockdowns will have the desired effect of bringing the curve under control again. They won't eradicate the virus of course and they will cause major economic damage. Getting that balance right is the extremely difficult part.

Everyone in the US has access to quality healthcare regardless of ability to pay, been that way for decades.

The Swedish plan was never a plan to reduce deaths from a virus that will do what viruses do. It was a plan to mitigate the situation to the best of their ability while preserving their economy. The lockdowns only kick the can down the road. After the new round of restrictions is lifted there will be another spike in cases and a new round of lockdowns. Can you see the cycle? Sweden will not go through any of that. For perspective, two days ago the Swedish national board of health care reported 55 Covid patients in intensive care. They should make it ok.
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