Of course everything is subject to change, but you need to remember that staffing and fleet planning are based on projections. Not the here and now. It wasn’t all too many years ago that we were hiring and training in full force, yet offering voluntary month-to-month leaves of absence because we were overstaffed.

While we are all still hearing about airlines continuing to cut back service and routes, that is all taking place within the legacies. They are still struggling to control their massive cash bleeding. Meanwhile in the world of LCCs and ULCCs … the likes of Frontier, Spirit, Allegiant, JetBlue, etc. have all been able to get our houses in order. All of our financial losses have gone from an arterial hemorrhage to a slow finger bleed. While the legacies are still trying to stand up after the punch, the U/LCCs are looking at how to take advantage of the current situation. It’s unfortunate to say, but every big downturn in this industry has offered opportunity for the underdogs. I have no doubt that Southwest would have always continued to grow and become extremely successful, but if it weren’t for 9/11, they may not have exploded into the massive and unstoppable powerhouse that they are today. The “Great Recession” provided incredible opportunity for Spirit. They were hiring and growing (With Indigo at the helm, I might add) while every other airline was furloughing.

For the first time since the beginning of the pandemic there is finally light at the end of the tunnel, despite the current surge in cases. Thankfully, Frontier now has a little bit of financial wiggle room in the “spend money to make money” department and it looks like they are planning to do just that. I’m not naïve enough to believe that we will be the next Southwest (although, if a merger with Spirit ever became a reality…), but there is about to be some massive opportunity for growth.

Also, to quickly address your concern on loads… Although I’m on voluntary leave until April, I’m still keeping a daily pulse on the industry and this company. It’s no surprise that I’m generally a positive type poster on here, but the current loads I’m seeing on our internal web everyday are exceeding even my expectations. There has no doubt been a dip recently, but people are still filling the planes we have flying at levels that I would have never expected. I’ll use ORD as an example since it’s our smallest base and easiest to determine, but current planned loads for all of tomorrow’s flights touching ORD are running at just over 83% load factor. Now, I can’t tell you RASM, but those are the current butts in seats

It’s also worth noting that the staffing adjustment award for January just published a few days ago and we will actually have a net increase in active pilots. The return of pilots on COLA (voluntary leave) did not cause any additional displacements of pilots to COLA-0 (our “safe space” word for furlough) as it has in previous months.

As I said in my last post though, it’s not all unicorns and butterflies. There has been talk of hiring pilots into zero-hour lines if things don’t pick up as quickly as hoped. How that will work for consolidation I have no idea. But, if you’re currently employed in a flying job, you may be left with a tough decision when that phone call comes. Although, I would remind you that by year two here, you would be making more than a senior captain at any regional. So, if you do have the wherewithal to take a hit for a few months, it may very well pay off exponentially in the future.