If there was anything close to a hint of a new base being thrown around by BL in recurrent recently, it was PHX. He spoke repeatedly about the overhaul of how we route aircraft for recoverability. We had a lot of “W” routes, where aircraft saw numerous outstations before returning into a base where tail swaps and crew swaps could happen. They now want turns (outstation and back) and “V” routes (base to outstation to different base). Which BL implied means several more small bases as growth occurs; without the need to shrink any existing bases. He said (paraphrasing) ‘that the new route structures and resulting trips won’t be great for commuters but will be great for those who live near one of the several bases.’

The current COVID environment has given them the opportunity to restructure routes and prepare for a more aggressive expansion in bases as flying returns.

So speaking from a recoverability standpoint, I think TPA is out (at least for pilots) because crew recoverability is a simple 45-60min limo ride from MCO. Current outstations that see a lot of turns and interactions with other bases through “V routes” are the most prime candidates for crew bases; you can make your educated guesses.