I agree.

It isn’t just the “new debt” for AA, it’s also the old debt. They simply aren’t going to be able to generate the cash to pay off bonds coming due in the next few years while the aircraft they used as collateral has become much less valuable due to the drop in used airliner (and even new MAX prices whose original buyers have gone under). Chances were they would have had to simply sell new bonds to pay off the old ones anyway, but now that the collateral is less valuable, they’ll be paying much higher interest. The last bonds AA sold were requiring a yield of about 12%, while the ones they will be refinancing went for 2.5 to 3.5%.

Business is going to have to recover quickly or the debt service costs are going to eat them alive.