Originally Posted by
GucciBoy
How about I give you $100K & you give me a guaranteed 15% return for 10 years? You can keep the rest. You can collateralize the deal with your portfolio.
This is the problem with historical data. You cherry picked 2009... the very bottom of the market. If you instead started just one year earlier, and bought the S and P at the start of 2008 (it was at 1447), you’d have a much more normal return of about 12% between then and now. Or if you lost your nerve and took your money out in 2012 you would have minimal profit (and you would’ve lost money if you had started in January 2007 or Jan 2008).
It’s historical market timing to compare someone’s performance to the market’s performance during one of the longest bull markets in history.