Thread: Side Hustle
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Old 12-19-2020 | 04:33 AM
  #389  
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Trip7
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Originally Posted by mispoken
totally get what you’re saying. I can see how someone would think companies are expensive at the moment. I have become very comfortable accepting that not only do I not know anything, neither does anyone else. Including the inventor of the PE ratio, Jim Cramer, anyone on CNBC and so on. When I buy excellent companies like TSLA and AMZN (even at today’s price) I think about the future potential. Amazon is just getting started, Tesla is has so many levers it’s unreal. They’re a $5 trillion company in the making.



I’ll say it one last time; if I tried to put a valuation on Amazon, Tesla, Netflix, Apple et al back in the day, I would have talked myself out of millions. Yes. Millions.



Attempting to value a company is a dead end from the start. Invest in the visionary founders like Musk, Bezos, Cook and watch the magic happen.



I can’t take credit for the returns I’ve seen. I started following the Motley Fool decades ago; I devoted a lot of time to watching what they did, listening to what they said, conversing with their community on their website much like we do here. It take a lot of time and up and down cycles. All I can say is that it’s worked incredibly well for me. I’ve conditioned myself to ignore all metrics and news with the exception of fraud or a company making a complete 180 from say making electric cars to mousetraps. Barring news like that, I. Just. Keep. Buying. (And most importantly, holding).



sorry if that sounded soap boxy. Not my intent and I’m just reflecting here on what has worked so well for me.
AMZN and APPL both traded at reasonable valuations for a while. Microsoft too. Apple has actually been a value stock until recently. Even Buffet bought Apple and its now his largest holding(44% of his stock portfolio!) . AMZN while their PE was high always traded at decent Price to Free Cash Flow. NFLX and TSLA for the most part have traded at "hopes and dreams" valuations.

The price of a stock is it's future free cash flows discounted the present value. TSLA and NFLX is very unlikely to give you the free cash flows to justify its current price in the next 100 years, let alone 10 or 20. TSLA specifically, IMO, is in the realm of irrational exuberance. PE of 1147. EV/EBIT (Enterprise Value to Operational Cash flow) of 358. Nosebleed prices would be an understatement. I commend those who have made alot of money off the Greater Fool Theory. Would I short Tesla? Absolutely not. The market can remain irrational longer than I can remain solvent

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