The 2008/2009 safety margin is definitely not there in the current market. There are still deals to be had, but it's like finding a needle in a haystack. We found a great deal on some development land back in March, but are sitting on that parcel after conversations with city officials indicated we had more options than originally considered. I tried rehabbing a few SFRs, but it wasn't worth the time to find the deals. I did one house with my daughter and that was it. I'm still looking for one or two self storage acquisitions, but don't expect returns like I've had on previous properties. I'd be thrilled with double digit CoC backed by SBA financing at 80-90 LTV.

On the passive investing side, I'm using a dollar cost averaging approach with some lazy capital. I've been slowly investing in passive multi-family deals and plan to continue that approach for a few more years. Some deals may be near the top of the market, but they cash flow. If the market drops, the deals get better. If it stays strong, I'm not left on the sidelines losing out to inflation. I'd rather have a portfolio of staggered acquisitions, rather than trying to time the market. Besides, there are billions of dollars in "vulture capital" just waiting for a CRE crash. There won't be near the correction of 2008.

After a 5 year buying spree in the wake of the 2008 crash, I began hoarding cash. Expecting rising interest rates with a wave of CMBS maturities in commercial real estate, there had to be some great deals in 2015 and beyond. Well you know the story on rates. The loan maturities were easily refinanced at lower rates and few of the properties came on the market. Those that did were at incredibly low cap rates and didn't represent a good deal. Had I continued buying from 2013 and beyond my portfolio would look quite different.

The main takeaway is "don't wait to buy real estate, buy real estate and wait". (*It must cash flow).