Originally Posted by
e6bpilot
Right now, that does seem like a good idea. Not so sure about a year from now.
I was listening to a podcast about lost Bitcoin yesterday. Apparently like 30 percent of Bitcoin is lost and will never be recovered. Folks got into it when it was 9 cents a coin or whatever and then trashed their old PCs that had their wallets on them because it wasn't worth saving. There are literally people scouring dumps looking for old PCs now that it is over $30k/coin.
Interesting stat: globally today there are 46.8 millionaires. There will only be 21 million BTC ever mined. There have been 18.5 million BTC mined so far.
The last BTC is expected to be mined in 2140. There have been ~4 million BTC permanently lost for various reasons (mostly what you mentioned).
Anyway, that leaves about 14.5 million BTC available right now. That’s enough for .31 BTC per existing millionaire if it was evenly distributed among them.
But already, lots of individuals and corporate investors have scooped up more than .31 each. Some have scooped up thousands or hundreds of thousands each. All of that makes the .31 available per millionaire lower. IOW, on the supply side, there’s not that much BTC to go around and demand is increasing.
Some people are throwing around .28 BTC as the figure you would need to be wealthy 10+ years from now. I don’t know how that number was arrived at but it’s out there.
Also, ya, BTC might go lower a year from now. But given the dramatic increase in money supply due to covid and the amount of institutional adoption, it’s beginning to look unlikely. Forecasts for BTC price a year from now range from zero from guys like Peter Schiff up to $320K from CitiBank. Some are suggesting (like the Winklevoss twins) that 10+ years from now BTC could hit a million dollars plus per coin.
I’d take the odds on getting half our pay in BTC. Not that it’ll happen, but it’s a nice thought.