I was thinking about Florida Dr. Gregory Michael's possible death due to an adverse COVID vaccine reaction, which is being investigated with no firm conclusions yet established.
Even if his death is directly attributable to the COVID vaccine...that'd make odds of death from adverse vaccine reaction what, 1 in 5,000,000?
Compare that to the odds of dying from COVID. Based on the 9 Jan update to the
CDC COVID Data Tracker, CFR is 1.68%; consider the CDC's estimate of 8 actual infections to every confirmed positive and you'd get an IFR of 0.21%.
Across
all demographics, that'd make odds of death from COVID 1 in 476.
Of course, not all demographics are equal with regards to COVID outcomes. Looking at reported CDC demographics for cases and deaths, and considering the CDC's estimate of actual vs confirmed positive cases, the odds of death from COVID for the
0-49 age demographic is 1 in 6859.
While I understand the reluctance some may have to be an 'early adopter' of a new type of vaccine due to the unknown...given the scientifically-determined efficacy of mRNA vaccines established via historical methods, the math seems to make vaccination a fairly straightforward value proposition.