Thread: Moving Forward
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Old 01-13-2021 | 05:19 AM
  #67  
Hedley
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Joined: Aug 2020
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Originally Posted by pangolin
There is a breaking point. The long game says there’s a competitive advantage to not having the 50 seaters. Pilots will be pressed that their airline needs scope concessions to remain competitive. Stand fast.
Prior to COVID, passenger traffic was steadily increasing and predicted to continue. Increasing the size of the aircraft was the best way to meet that demand due to airport and ATC congestion. If that returns, I can see a situation where XYZ is no longer served by 8 little jets per day, but 4-5 bigger ones. Fuel prices will eventually climb as well making an old and inefficient aircraft less attractive. United only has 2 options for more 175’s, and I don’t see that changing. United pilots can fly them, or they can buy another NB fleet type and allow up to 70 more 76 seaters. I don’t think that United pilots will ever fly the 175. That leaves Kirby with the choice of buying something like the 220 or 195e2 and freeing up more 76 seaters for UAX, or replacing that lift with the current fleet types. I doubt that United gets a new fleet type, but instead uses 737-700’s and 319’s. The 220 or 195e2 would be a great product that customers would like, but they add cost to the system. I really don’t think that Kirby wants to face the scope restrictions that the additional 76 seaters would trigger either. He just wants a bunch of 175’s without those restrictions kicking in.
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