Originally Posted by
Duchess
Is there any risk to scope IF United declares bankruptcy (chapter 11), Kirby could ask the judge that his major competitor (American) allows for small RJ at seats of 65 or less, and that unless United gets on an even playing field with American, they will not be able to compete?
At this point, UAL isn’t at any real risk of BK. They have access to a ton of cash, the cash burn is down, a vaccine is being distributed, and travel will return. It may not be at 2019 record levels for several years, but it will be cash neutral, or even profitable, although a smaller airline, well before the money runs out. Of the big 3, AA is in the worst financial shape, and BK is not a certainty for them either. As we recover from this, Kirby is going to want to go after American and try to catch Delta. I just don’t see him doing that with tired old single class 50 seaters, especially when Delta will be exclusively 70+ seats in the near future. Moving forward, cash is going to be tight and I think that Kirby will decide to get cheap used 737/320 types rather than spend the money to add another fleet type. He’s also calculating the cost of more restrictive scope language that the addition of more UAX 76 seaters would trigger. Adding used 737/320 aircraft could be cheaper over the next 10 years than incurring the cost of an additional fleet type and more restrictive scope.