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https://hub.united.com/2021-01-20-un...650045521.html
Since you want to to bring up United, why don’t we discuss with a little more context. They just had a bid come out that gets everyone mostly back into their old seats according to a thread in their forum. Back to the 5 year captain and such. Even with all the international that everyone keeps saying will take longer to recover, even with their large business travel that will take longer to recover, even with all their widebodies that are idle, even with their other parked planes, they appear to be doing the opposite of considering furloughs. They pulled down the most the fastest, and now they appear to have the wheels in motion to be posturing for the recovery.
Robin H has said they are also working under the assumption that travel will significantly recover by the end of this year. There is almost zero chance of a furlough right now, and anytime soon. If the company did it before the end of summer, it would be the company cutting off its nose to spite its face, or due to continued sustained demand for the 2nd half of the year, which they will know about by the summer. But if the revenue still sucks by then, even with this AIP, they can still furlough in October. So what does it matter?
Realistically, because furloughs cost so much money, and because there’s such a long payoff period (at least 6-9 months) before its viable, and a long lag to displace & train both directions, there will be further negotiations to mitigate them if it comes down to it. Right now, that’s not even a conversation topic, other than being used as a sound bite with scary numbers by ALPA to sell the AIP.
Gosh I hope you’re right, but do you really think there’s almost a zero percent chance that they don’t furlough anyone? That’s a fairly bold statement while we burn 8m/day.
RH or whomever can throw out any predictions on where they see demand going the second half of 2021, it doesn’t mean they’ll be right. They were dead wrong on a lot of things since this pandemic started, through no fault of their own. No one has a crystal ball. Obviously things are a little clearer as we learn more about this virus, and now that the vaccine is being distributed.
Until the company officially adjusts its cash burn to a more manageable number will I believe the threat of furloughs to be empty. Until then, I’ll wait for the full language agreement and vote accordingly.