Originally Posted by
nuball5
Gosh I hope you’re right, but do you really think there’s almost a zero percent chance that they don’t furlough anyone? That’s a fairly bold statement while we burn 8m/day.
RH or whomever can throw out any predictions on where they see demand going the second half of 2021, it doesn’t mean they’ll be right. They were dead wrong on a lot of things since this pandemic started, through no fault of their own. No one has a crystal ball. Obviously things are a little clearer as we learn more about this virus, and now that the vaccine is being distributed.
Until the company officially adjusts its cash burn to a more manageable number will I believe the threat of furloughs to be empty. Until then, I’ll wait for the full language agreement and vote accordingly.
They might be wrong...but the AIP as written essentially only provides furlough protection through October if the revenue is still in the toilet. Doubt they’d furlough before/in the summer. That doesn’t make sense. Not with the travel we had pre-vaccine over Christmas, during a big spike in cases. So realistically if they are going to furlough, they’ll do it in the fall if the vax rollout doesn’t help stimulate demand. Also will depend on lockdowns and such, but at least domestically those seem to be reversing (see Cuomo for an example).
Could they furlough? Sure. They could also do it on a similar timeline even with the TA getting voted in if things are that bad. But the chances of it happening are very slim in the near term, as they really just don’t know when the recovery will happen and the vaxes rolling out. The cost of furlough and lag time in displacement bids, training, new bids going the other way, retraining, etc, just makes it a tough justification for a short term exercise, and all signs point to things being a lot better this summer than last summer, and even more so for holiday 2021 and summer 2022. Especially with possible continued govt support in the meantime.
Remember, the company is also required to meet with ALPA and discuss and mitigate furloughs if/when they determine it necessary. There are still a lot of 23.A items left to use. Sending this TA back won’t immediate cause furloughs. There is still opportunity to mitigate beyond solely this AIP and the TA vote. It isn’t a one shot, one opportunity to mitigate type of thing. And again, furloughs are not currently on the table as a discussion point. They could be. But there is no actual plan to furlough right now. If and when there is, there will be another opportunity to mitigate. The company really doesn’t want to furlough. I’m sure they’d love to out of spite for the pilots, but the cost, and uncertainty of the recovery, just makes it a very tough thing to justify.