Originally Posted by
duvie
I would say the more interesting question to ask, is which termination trigger will be the one to end the LOA. I would guess the 80% load for one quarter. Depending on how aggressive/low-yields the company will go this summer, I don’t think a Q3 with 80% is out of the realm of possibility. Not likely, but possible.
Most of these triggers suggest we’ll be under the LOA for the entirety of ‘21. The more important metric to watch in the short term will be pilot block hours. Above 70% 2019 numbers, we’re effectively very near UPA hourly guarantees, even with the LOA in effect. Since multiple termination triggers require certain metrics to be met across one or more quarters, it’s likely we’ll see multiple months at 70MPG before the LOA actually gets officially terminated.
So while we probably won’t see termination in ‘21, I’m mainly hoping for block hours to get up into a more comfortable range before this round of stimulus expires.