Back to the original question. In short, YES. As for stable and any carrier (legacy or otherwise) is an oxymoron. It's not just legacies.

As far as a merger combination with UAL, it's looking like CAL is the most likely. Will some overlap be eliminated? Yes. Does it worry me? Yes; I'm close to the bottom of the seniority list; hired in 2000. I could easily end up back on the streets for another 5 years and am planning for it. Changing retirement to 65 does not help.

On the flipside, UAL is undermanned so that they can reduce pilot hours with reductions in block hours. Also, there's not much overlap with CAL so that should limit block hour reductions. Last, a decent chunk of the service reductions can occur in the express partners; they could get hit a lot worse than mainline.

But we're going into a recession, so that's not good for airlines. And this isn't going to be a mellow recession.

I wouldn't turn down UAL because of the possibility of being furloughed; I'd just make sure that I had several backup plans. And make sure that they're not all aviation related. Once you've got your line number with UAL, they'll train you back to standards upon return from furlough, so it's not like you have to stay current. Look at a possible furlough as an opportunity to do things that you've always wanted to do.

Flying airplanes is a great job when things go your way. Even when they're not, it's an OK job. But just like planning for any emergency, make alternate plans should you end up getting furloughed. I was lucky; I had several plans ahead of my sudden furlough - I was out of a job less than 6 months after 911. Fortunately, I was drawing a military paycheck starting the day prior to my furlough.

Good luck to ya.