Originally Posted by
tlove482
The whole trial process has a lot of assumptions though. The 95% efficacy number came from the assumption that everyone had the same exposure to the virus. They did not. That's why a challenge trial is the only real way to figure out true efficacy.
With trials sized at 30,000 people, and control and trial participants intermingled in the same locations statistics tells us the odds of a significant error due to inconsistent exposure between trial groups are astronomically small. They used a large trial group to get results quickly... but one fringe benefit of that is an unusually tight statistical fit on the results (confidence interval). Also HIGHLY telling that both mRNA vaccine trials (run separately in different locations, using technically similar but independently developed and manufactured vaccines) got the same results.
And the real-world results match, Israel has vaccinated millions and observed results identical to the trials (see my post in the Vaccine Progress) thread.
Frankly, we are now beyond pretty much any reasonable doubt about vaccine efficacy or safety for the widely deployed vaccines.
Only things outstanding are...
1) How long does immunity last (natural and vaccine-induced). They have clinically observed a few months, and of course we'll know more as time passes. Historical experience with this sort of virus suggests we'll get at least 1-2 years immunity from vaccines, and it would take a pretty big piece of bad luck to get less than that.
2) Will the bug mutate around the current vaccines? It's possible, but not particularly easy. Even a mutation which results in some reduced vaccine efficacy still probably won't totally nullify the vaccine, and may not be able to overcome herd immunity (once established). Time will tell, but worst case, we modify the vaccines or maybe get period updated boosters. No biggie in the grand scheme, they can stick it in my right arm when they give me the annual flu shot in my left.