Originally Posted by
MasterOfPuppets
yes the 319 will be here for a while but I bet we see a 1:1 with 320’s heading out as MAXs arrive. Other than the 757 the 320 has the most planes OTS and store currently with 2 of them sent into retirement in GYR prior to COVID.
MEC update says 94 new MAXs in the next 3 years that’s nearly 1:1 as we have 95 320’s.
the growth aircraft will be the 30 319’s from easy jet and the 30 737 700s from southwest.
Lots of potential for 1:1 replacements. Both the Airbus and early 737 NG fleets are getting pretty old. I imagine that United can get the Max much cheaper than the Neo right now. The 757’s are older and burn far more fuel as well. A Max 9 can’t carry the cargo that a 757 can or fly quite as far, but then again a 757 can’t carry 179 pax from MCO-SFO and only burn 4,900 lbs/hr. The bean counters will argue that the max can do the vast majority of what the 757 fleet actually does for much less. The 319 and 700’s that are on the way will be nice for smaller markets if Kirby is actually serious about the future of the 50 seat fleet (I doubt that he is). As long as we don’t give in on scope, time is on our side since the 70/76 seaters are maxed out and the 50 seaters are nearing their end. We may be moving towards reduced frequency on bigger equipment rather than depend of high frequency provided by regional aircraft. The model seems to work pretty well for Southwest, Spirit, etc.