Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
It looks like this thread was originally from 2014/2015, but what would a mega merger look like in the present climate?
Like the last round, it would happen most likely in association with bankruptcy and downsizing. We might just squeak out a recovery before much of that plays out this time.
Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
What would it mean for the airline industry if things didn’t turn around in the time frame that everyone is currently hoping it will, and the government decides down the road that the only option is to nationalize the airlines?
Things would have to be REALLY, REALLY bad for anyone to even talk about that. The airlines are not the only critical industries... I think they'd probably nationalize power generation before airlines.
Far more likely they'd just let the industry BK and right-size itself into whatever it's new niche would be.
If you start with airlines, where do you end? Amazon? Even China knows to keep most of its' big companies at arms-length to avoid the stagnation and inefficiency which is inevitable in any civilian government monopoly.
Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
I ask because nationalization is often talked about in a negative light, but airlines like Emirates seem to have high pay and QOL despite being government owned.
??? EK is not really known for high pay and QOL by US standards... especially the QOL.
Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
Is it just that our situation is just so much more complex because we have many airlines vs other countries who might only have one flagship carrier?
Nationalization would be very far removed from where we are today, it would take much bigger changes than just the airline industry to get anywhere near there.
Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
I understand that government regulation in any industry has the ability to stifle growth and competition and to be much less efficient than the free market can be, but how exactly would a giant merger and nationalization of our airlines affect pilot contracts and pay?
Government pay is already set for all employees, and pilots fall into that scheme. Google what current DHS, ICE, FAA, etc pilots get paid. Probably about senior regional CA pay.
Bonuses can be implemented for specialties such as medical doctors, for retention, or law enforcement for unscheduled over-time. But that probably wouldn't apply to airline pilots, unless they simply had a bad shortage... but in that case they'd probably just hire kids out of HS and run them through .gov flight schools.
Originally Posted by
Broccoli Rob
Theoretically wages would go down, but is there an obvious answer as to what would happen to the number of pilot jobs, and what would take the place of union contracts? Would the government just dictate your benefits, or would there still be negotiation involved?
Government unions are limited in what they can negotiate directly... they can't "negotiate" a change to federal civil service pay or bennies with their boss, congress has to legislate that. Those unions normally achieve their goals by back-room political manipulation, not negotiation. Nothing like the unions we have.
Also be aware there's not much precedent in the civil service (or the mil) to work 4-on, 4-off, or to fly your line and then go home. You'd probably have to work five days per/week and if you're not flying you probably have to come into the office to do admin, training CBT's, etc. Public perception matters for government employees, and they are not going to give you a bunch of paid days off... looks like fraud, waste, and abuse to the media and voters. Might get around that if your total duty hours hit 40 before 1700 on Friday.
There'd probably be a good gym for your use at the airport though, so there's that.
You'd also probably not be allowed to commute, or if you were there would not be any slack at all for no-shows. You'd probably have to buy revenue tickets to get to work reliably. But you would get a COLA for living in high-rent domiciles.
I could have gotten any of several .gov pilot jobs... I did the airline thing for a reason.