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Old 03-05-2021, 10:44 AM
  #14  
Excargodog
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Originally Posted by todd1200 View Post
It doesn't seem that hard to setup. My grad school does free weekly surveillance testing, takes less than 5 minutes. I could see why airlines would want to avoid the disruption caused by crew members finding out they're positive in the middle of a trip, possibly in another country, but it does seem odd that our current policy that doesn't allow us to fly while waiting for asymptomatic surveillance results discourages us from getting tested regularly which kinda contradicts FAA guidance and common sense.
The problem isn’t difficulty setting up - the problem is the predictive value positive and negative of screening testing. It isn’t that great to begin with and as the prevalence decreases (which it certainly is doing currently) the predictive value gets even lower.

Google (or YouTube) Bayesian Law of conditional probability.

And EARLY in an infection ALL the tests have poor to negligible predictive value positive.
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