Originally Posted by mispoken

You’ve got to do what works for you. But you are taking someone else’s work, Morningstar in this case, and assuming their “model” is an accurate depiction of current and, more importantly, future value. They adjust those “fair value” numbers on a quarterly basis simply because that is what they are paid to do. Imagine if they picked a fair value for 2040 and didn’t change it or give updates, how much business would they get from subscriptions. Wall Street analysts are even worse. Consider Morningstars fair valuation is a split adjusted price of $1750/share. Go back 2-3 years and see what their fair value was then. How does their fair value keep going up? What happens if you keep waiting for it to “come back down to earth” and reach fair value (hint, you lose out) and Morningstar doesn’t care. Because they keep churning out numbers that people pay them to churn out since it makes them feel smart.



If you want to give Tesla the title of a “story” then I’ll read it all day long. You mention it’s “unhinged from reality” but how was launching rockets into space and landing them on a postage stamp in the ocean within a couple of years part of our reality.



You’ve limited your investing to looking at a number that is the result of dividing one number by another taken from a quarterly report. You cannot achieve outsized growth without understanding technology, how it advances society and believing in the story which becomes a new reality every day.



You often talk about how valuations are extreme and I keep saying that in order to say this you somehow know exactly what a company is worth. So I ask you, what is Shopify worth? How about Tesla? What is this based on?



I don’t pretend to know those nor focus energy on trying to know. I don’t care. I look at what they’re doing, how they’re doing it and how they’re investing their capital.



Again, The doomsday bear thesis always sounds smarter. If that’s what’s important to you, roll with it. I’ll be the idiot in the room day dreaming about the potential of space x landing on Mars while I write investing posts to this board in my cyber truck which is being up linked via starlink internet as I smoothly bypass traffic in the massive tunnel under Las Vegas.