You said “permanent loss of capital” a lot in that post. Your investing seems to be fear driven which is very institutional in nature. “Investing is scary and risky” says Wall Street. “Let us take care of it for you; we are smart” they say.
Im not sure the relevance of GME to this discussion. It’s a typical case of a brick and mortar company not innovating and keeping up with the times. Hardly a SHOP, TSLA or AMZN. Their fate was sealed when the internet was invented and they failed to move beyond physical game sales. It’s current movements are irrelevant to this discussion.
Since you’re cherry picking time horizons with CSCO to justify your theory I’ll do the same. Here is CSCO from 2004–Present. How is this a permanent loss of capital? A great investment? Meh. Not really. But if I bought a share in 2004, for $18 and it’s worth $50 today....I’m not sure I’m following the point you’re trying to make. See image.
https://ibb.co/0GdNq2S
Now “
this is not a question for someone who understands fundamentals of investing should ask.” You say. But if you understand fundamentals why are you relying on fair value estimates from morning star. Compare that to any other analyst firm out there and their fair value is different. So does everybody NOT understand fundamentals? Don’t forget, the market is future looking, not backward. All of your data you’re using to inform your decisions for investing are using historical data that cannot harness the future of innovation and technology.
All that being said, you’re still in the 1% of people who even care to invest time to learning some sort of investing acumen. You’ve done your research and while our methods are very different, you’ll still come out ahead than those that don’t. I have no doubt about that. I’ve got my data, let’s reconvene in 5 years when you have yours. I recommend creating a simple spreadsheets that tracks cash in flow and out flow with dates. From there it’s very simple to run an XIRR calculation to compare your performance to an index. Good luck!