Originally Posted by
Excargodog
My personal opinion? Regional flying of smaller jet aircraft is likely going to be decreasing anyway - the first casualty of trying to control carbon release. A220 and 319 NEO service on a less frequent basis will replace higher frequency smaller aircraft and likely a return to smaller turboprops and/or small electric aircraft for EAS and other low volume ops. Similarly, except perhaps for international ops you will see more flights direct to and less feeding of hubs. The quickest way to reduce carbon footprint is to make the system more efficient and feeding hubs - often at right angles (or worse) to the intended destination isn’t an efficient use of fuel compared to nonstop.
I’d agree that the number of regional aircraft will decrease in the future, but fuel cost coupled with the age and unpopularity of the 50 seaters will be more of a determining factor than environmental brownie points. If fuel stays cheap, aging and inefficient types could stick around for a while. If fuel goes up significantly, the smaller jets could be retired fairly quickly and replaced with reduced frequency on bigger planes. United for instance will be taking delivery of 94 aircraft over the next two years and will have plenty of lift available. Should be an interesting couple of years to see how the industry comes back.