Originally Posted by
Voski
I wanted to bump this thread because the last post was pre-COVID. We’re in an interesting spot due to the industry shakeup. Nobody went unscathed due to the economic hit in 2020, but the ULCCs seem to be least impacted. Moreover, they look like they’re going to be the biggest winners in the recovery. The next few years are going to be interesting ...
I think you are right. They were growing nearly 15% per year before COVID and they (and SWA) are going to steal a lead on the legacies in recovery. Excepting the one nominal legacy (Alaska) the decline of business and international flying is really driving up legacy CASM. Competing on fares for the visiting friends and family crowd isn’t what the legacy business model was designed for and it’s difficult to think that they’ll do well at is. With CASM ex-fuel down around 7 cents (and their own good fuel efficiency) the ULCCs and SWA ought to hold their own against the Big Three fairly well.