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Old 03-31-2021, 03:21 PM
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skywatch
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Originally Posted by Furloughedboi View Post
From what I've seen and this article similarly shows; 3 - 4 times the positive cases are the estimated cases. So like the article says, we’re at about 120 million USA citizens had covid already. With 50 million fully vaccinated, and counting overlap, probably a safe estimate would be like 150 million? I can’t find the data that shows how many vaccinated had never tested for covid prior.
Either way, we’re at like 45% immunity. But that’s not given the context of location. Places like NY or LA got to have much more immunity than rural, wealthy, or isolated places that hardly saw any covid cases
I see what you are saying, but I think it is higher. We are a nation of 330 million people with 31 million confirmed positive cases. So say 10% confirmed positive,. The article says that the experts estimate that over the entirety of the pandemic, five times more people have been infected than have been reported - in this article. There are other "experts" out there that estimate higher numbers. But that does mean at least 155 million cases already by my math, about half the population without counting vaccinations.

Of those getting vaccinations, none of the deaths would fit in that category (550K), plus another 50 million fully vaccinated people and another 100 million people that have gotten at least one dose. If there is zero overlap, that would mean that 155 million cases plus 150 million partially/fully vaccinated people = over 300 million with immunity in a nation of 330 million.

How much overlap is there? Hard to say, but logically I still don't really see how we are not already there. Even worse case scenario I would assume well over 50% have immunity, either natural or vaccine conferred.
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