You make a great point, some quick upgrades are due to a bad operation.

I remember listening to pilots in 2000 that wanted to wait until they could hold a line as a captain because they didn't want to get yanked around on reserve.

Those same pilots watched their pals that took the earlier upgrade, at their company, qualify and leave for "better" pastures, while they were stuck when the industry turned down.

Nothing is certain. Risk-taking rewards some, and smashes others in the face.