Originally Posted by skywatch
Also Boiler, not sure I agree with your math from earlier
What are your specific disagreements? I cited the source of my information (CDC Data Tracker), you're free to check my work.
I will stipulate one error - there are no demographic statistics for what ages and genders took which specific vaccines. That being said, 54.8% of all people receiving COVID vaccine are women, so it is probably a reasonable assumption that 50% of J&J vaccine has gone to women aged 18-49. Accordingly, the 5500 times higher odds of dying from a confirmed positive COVID case than developing CVST from the Janssen vaccine is incorrect - its
only 2750 times higher.
these vaccines could have undesirable side effects (autoimmune?) we won’t see for years
*could* is a speculative word.
in addition to the immediate things like blood clotting and/or allergic reactions.
CVST is the specific issue currently being discussed.
And there have been estimates that up to five times as many people have had Covid as have simply tested positive for it, so while it may not change the CFR calculation enough for some, I do think it changes it.
That is an absolutely valid point...but that doesn't change Case Fatality Ratio, it would change Infection Fatality Ratio. The current CDC figure is 4.6 estimated actual infections for every one reported confirmed positive case, making the 1.80% CFR an estimated 0.39% IFR. That figure, while important in the overall picture of the pandemic, doesn't materially change the MASSIVE delta in probability of a 18-49 year old woman developing CVST from the Janssen vaccine and dying from a confirmed COVID case.