Originally Posted by
at6d
I’m at 45%. Within five years 750 captains retire, within ten it jumps to 2150.
According to
myseniority.com to reach 60% with ExTO back in one year and 2% growth, I’m looking at around September 2025. If I did it right.
Ten years.
Using those same numbers (back in 1 year, and 2% growth) I show:
60% in Dec 2023 (10 years)
55% in Jul 2025 (11.5 years)
50% in Sept 2026 (12.5 years)
I think having all of the EXTOs back by Sept (one year) might be a little ambitious. So at 2 years, (which is probably a little pessimistic - maybe we should split the difference) the numbers look like:
60% in Feb 2024 (10 years)
55% in Sep 2025 (11.5 years)
50% in Jan 2027 (13 years)
With zero growth - if SWAPA is able to persuade the company to use its pilots more efficiently and offer open time and premium as opposed to big hiring numbers.
60% in Oct 2024 (10.5 years)
55% in May 2026 (12.5 years)
50% in Jan 2028 (14 years)
So I'm thinking 12-13 years is probably going to be reasonably close provided SWAPA has some success encouraging the company to be more efficient and there are no other black swan events.
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