The reality is that military service will never be able to compete for pilots over the long term. Military flying is more challenging and fulfilling, but it requires a degree of dedication (especially of a pilot’s time)that is unsustainable for those who highly value family time or financial rewards. The USAF should operate on the assumption that they will lose close to 60% of pilots at the end of their UPT commitment. It will drive a higher annual production rate and a different career progression model.