Originally Posted by
AxlF16
If you disagree that the TA provided the predictability that enabled the company to aggressively plan the recovery then you're being obtuse - or have no idea how planning works in complex environments. I don't have inside company or ALPA info, but I can guarantee you that we would not be in the same position without the LOA. There is no chance the company would've kept us this intact. We are hiring because we anticipate demand - AND because we have airplanes and we have training capacity (and we have several hundred spots created by early retirements). The CARES funding doesn't explain as much as you assert. I guess we'll wait for you to see what is obvious to most of us... I'm not optimistic that you'll see it though.
The ENTIRE POINT of the LOA was to position UAL to spool up capacity faster than our competitors when demand returned. THAT is what's being laid out in front of us right now...yet you don't see it? So yes, IMO we would be hiring this year (maybe not May, but certainly late summer or fall) if CARES 2 & 3 were not passed. Once again - the entire point was to maintain the airline in a state that could be ramped up quickly. We were planned to be heavy in NB captains - for a reason. I'm not making this up - it was in writing and words for all of us to see and hear. They are doing exactly what they said they would do.
Admit it.
I think something that’s clouding the dialogue is that there are really two separate conversations here. The first is how appropriate a solution to the pandemic crisis the LOA was, and the second is how effective has it been in practice. These considerations operate independently of one another.
The first point I’m setting aside. I think most of us on either side of the discussion agreed that the LOA was an imperfect solution whose alternatives were dire and depressing. We all had to pick what we felt the lesser evil was. I’m totally comfortable with that, & I don’t begrudge anyone their vote or opinion. But let’s at least be honest that we’re all assessing its value from within the bubble of full pay & employment provided by CARES funding. That money turned the worst disaster in our industry’s history into a relatively consequence free year. LOA or no, without this aid we’d be in a
much different position today. I might not feel so confident in my stance from the unemployment line & you might not be so happy to see pilot hiring while you and/or a third of the airline were 7 months in on 50% pay.
To the second point I’m only arguing we never really got to see the LOA in action, as the airline has been HEAVILY subsidized by government funding every month but one since its implementation. We can’t just brush off the significance of that & pretend we’ve been seeing it perform in a vacuum. Yes, keeping the staffing at ready levels was a stated goal. How big a role that played we can only guess. All I can look at is 50% block hours & bleeding $1.4B in a
good quarter. We’ve got BES that are going RSV at 30%-40%. That’s happening
today. I just don’t see a world where an airline hires under those circumstances unless someone else is writing the checks. If that makes me obtuse, I’m obtuse.
One of the great things about CARES $$$ was that it put the airline in a position to operate in an anemic market as though it were a booming one. I for one am thrilled they’ve decided to use that opportunity to act aggressively & come out ready to fight, rather than going into defense positions, which is
exactly what I think they’d be doing today absent the billions in federal support they’re getting.