Originally Posted by
Stitches
We are looking at 2019 summer flying levels minus about 5% according to Gary’s messaging for June/July. Over the past year we have retired about 100 and another 550 or so via the early retirement. That puts us pretty close to optimal manning levels going forward.
Im expecting around 100 upgrades this fall to balance out the list followed shortly by some new blood in the training center early next year. I’d wager we will see 2012 hires upgrade this fall and a trickle of 2013/2014 hires by mid 2022. I would not be surprised to see upgrade drop down to the 6 year mark if things keep rolling along. Most of the 2015-2017 guys will be looking at an 8 year or less upgrade (less for the West coast guys) and I think it will stay around there for the foreseeable future.
none of this is based on any inside info, just reading the tea leaves.
i think we are down over 900 pilots since 2019. We were just a couple of pilots short of ten thousand and now the list shows 9090. My tea leaves have me thinking there will be massive amounts of premium this summer. Already seeing some and a recent union email said we have already had more JA events this year than all of 2018. If will be like 2016 or whatever summer that was where you couldn’t finish a trip without an extension or a JA.
As as far as upgrades I really think it depends on where the vacancies are. If the vacancies continue to be out west upgrades will continue to go junior. I have been here 13 years in June and I’m still bypassing. With this latest vacancy the projected award shows 16 displacements out of MDW and 22 out of DEN. At 13 years I will probably not be able to hold either base it looks like. With covid and everything else nothing has changed for me. I will continue bypassing until I can hold about 85% in DEN or MDW.