Prior to covid guys could upgrade at 10 years (earliest opportunity on the West coast) with a more realistic number being 12 years for the vast majority including Atl & Mco guys willing to do a 1 leg commute to a more jr base. Thanks to what looks to be a relatively quick recovery from 2020 and the early retirements, upgrades look like they are getting back on glideslope so to speak. There wasn’t a lot of hiring from 2008-2013 so the 10-12yr number is going to shift down to 6-9 fairly soon depending on hire dates.

I foresee the West coast continuing to offer the earliest upgrade opportunities. Lax will likely continue to grow a bit and Denver is poised to take off as well. I wouldn’t be surprised to see a Stl base in a few years which might ease things up on the East coast as well.