Not really. Sky jet said it won’t happen because pilots would get displaced. But that doesn’t have to be the case, and he even said so. So he disregarded that point of his and said that even without displacements, pilots would have to wait until all furloughed ones are hired first. In essence, that happened. All the pilots with better qualifications (furloughed pilots) get hired before pilots without previous airline experience. Then he says that pilots would not take early outs when offered they would know that their job isn’t in danger. But none of the senior pilots that took early outs did it because they were fearing for their job. That’s doesn’t make sense, plus their jobs were never in danger because they are senior.

As for flensr, his assumptions don’t have to be true either. For example, you can make it so that each airline has complete control on who they hire and how they do it. And pilots can only “bid” and airlines can only take pilots in the NSL when there is an excess of pilots on the list (when another airline furloughs it goes out of business) assuming they are in need of pilots. You can even make it so that you can only exercise your NSL rights when your airline goes out of business. As for negotiating a contract, the union would just negotiate baseline items like pay rates, retirement, insurance, days off, etc and leave the details for each mec to negotiate.

The point being is that you can make it so all these things are taken into account.
But, it won’t happen but not because of those reasons. It won’t happen because humans.