Originally Posted by
norskman2
Things are good in MEM right now. But remember, in a merger all bets are off.
MSP, DTW, CVG -- all are located close together. Something has to give.
ATL, MEM. Same thing. No way Delta maintains both as hubs.
So....
DTW & ATL are locks to stay post-merger.
MSP - even money. Minnesota politicians could hold up the merger unless they get assurances of a hub.
CVG - shaky
MEM - odd man out, too small, few international routes, WAY too close to ATL SuperHub. MEM closes.
I mostly agree except that NWA has been known to reneg on their promises in the past. What may happen is that NWA will promise MN politicians that NWA will keep MSP as a hub to ge the merger approved then after the merger, NWA/DAL management will say they can no longer keep MSP open as a viable business option and start to scale down MSP as a hub and eventually close it down except for XJ operations.
DTW and ATL will most likely remain as a hub for NWA/DAL.
MEM will probably close as a NWA/DAL hub but remain open for regional flying for XJ. Unliekely to open another hub different than ATL.
SLC is a wild card. I hope it stays open as a hub. Gives another pilot base other than DTW or MEM is a good thing. Since it looks like NWA has a lot of planned routes for jet flying into the west, I think it will stay open.
I think there will be a major reorganization of regionals if the merger goes through. NWA/DAL will not need 6 or 7 different regionals. Regionals owned by NWA and DAL will be eventually operated under a single holding corporation. It is already happening for XJ and Compass. NWA has formed a Mesaba Compass Holding Corporation to operate Mesaba and Compass.