Originally Posted by BeatNavy

There was talk by Scott L (network/revenue/planning guy) pre-pandemic of possibly opening a new focus city in 3-5 years, but none of those cities. I’m sure covid has affected that though and haven’t heard anything else about it in a long time. Nothing I see points to a new focus city or crew base, at least in the short term. Focus seems to be on growing existing cities (NYC/BOS first for the NEA, then likely LAX, with some south Florida mixed in, then lastly MCO).

EWR possibly could be a crew base—but they will likely bargain for it to be included as a JFK co-base in the next section 6 first…or, if they renegotiate LOA13 based on the arbitration results, maybe try then too. I just don’t see them opening it right now as a separate base without a fight to get it included in JFK. LAS and RDU may have enough flights/overnights to justify a base in the next 5 years, but I’m not holding my breath for either. I’ve heard SFO tossed around, but I think if that ever happens it’d be a long way off (5-10 years?). Then there’s the rumor of AUS or BNA I’ve heard a few times, but I don’t see either happening anytime soon. So my answer: I’m not planning on any new crew bases in the next 5 years, outside of EWR being added as a co-base if the pilot group gives it away, or possibly as a new base altogether.

Regarding an AA merger rumor: there is always a B6 merger rumor. AA is the rumor du jour because of the NEA. I just don’t see the DOJ allowing a AA+B6 merger, unless possibly AA shrank significantly and went thru a bankruptcy first. Not impossible, but also not likely imo. I think AA/B6 each kind of has the best of both worlds for themselves as it stands with the NEA. A merger would cause more divestiture and large cost for integration, with a decade+ of merger related issues (look no further than current AA with their HP/L-US/L-AA integration). AA & B6 are already getting a lot of the benefit of a merger (network integration and FF base) without incurring the associated costs and having to streamline / convert / integrate products. The only B6 merger I see as possible is with Alaska…but even that doesn’t seem likely, at least not presently. I guess a merger with NK/F9 (or even breeze down the road) could be possible as well…but I see those as even less likely.