View Single Post
Old 05-22-2021 | 03:34 PM
  #11  
Excargodog's Avatar
Excargodog
Perennial Reserve
 
Joined: Jan 2018
Posts: 14,253
Likes: 257
Default

Point of order:

Regional airlines derive their revenue from the major they are flying for, meaning their ability to raise wages is limited by the major airline’s ability to make money. Several airlines have gone rather deeply in debt to survive COVID, notwithstanding the PSP. The debt generally takes the form of either bonds or loans.

Most of the loans are essentially pegged to inflation by being a certain percentage over some commercial rate, such as the LIBOR plus 2%. What that means is as the inflation goes up the debt service on those loans will instantly go up.

Many of the bonds are relatively short term - five year to ten years or so - and often were sold for the purpose of buying equipment. And when the bonds were sold and the aircraft backing them were new, most got a pretty good rate - sometimes as low as 2-2.5%.

Since then the bond ratings of the companies have cratered and the new aircraft have become used aircraft and I think only one of the legacies is currently rated above ‘junk’ by the rating agencies. Now if the airlines had the cash flow to pay off the bonds at term, that wouldn’t be all that important, but that seems unlikely at present, meaning they will have to refinance - to issue new bonds to pay off the old bonds. But lower bond ratings and older collateral and higher inflation means the coupon on the new bond debt will have to be higher - perhaps considerably higher. Even now - with the fed pumping money into the system junk bonds are commanding a 4% coupon. If inflation goes even higher the fed will eventually stop pumping money in and interest rates will trend toward their historic norms.


https://www.bloombergquint.com/markets/bond-investors-take-ever-riskier-bets-in-hunt-for-greater-return


Even 2015 levels of inflation could easily see junk bond rates doubling what they are now, and for an airline with $40 billion in debt ( just to grab a number out of the air) their debt service alone could rise to over $3 billion a year, just for the interest alone.

That’s not an environment where they are going to feel free to be generous with their junior partners.
Reply