Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Most people I've talked to are being told they'll be back in the office. These are white-collar pros who have to collaborate and coordinate in a team. They're "hoping" to get one day/week at home, and that's not unreasonable to have a heads-down day to catch up on emails, etc. One guy I know who's an exec expects to allow one day at home, and it will be either wed/thur with employees evenly split, or maybe just wed only. No "freebie" 3-day weekends and he wants max opportunity for physical in-person meetings and collaborations, so the whole team will be in the office three or four days/week.
Some government employees *might* get to do telecommuting but only by claiming environmental benefits.... even that's iffy because the inevitable cases of fraud, waste, and abuse (ie GS "telecommuting" from the golf course, boat, etc) will trigger severe political blowback. Private sector can eat that as a cost of doing business and it won't make the six oclock news, but not .gov.
Some lower-end "widget" type productivity jobs will stay at home, as long as they can easily quantify your productivity. Maybe some accountants, etc. Computer programming was largely already telecommute pre-covid, where it made sense.
Even one day at home for many folks would make a dent in traffic, but it probably won't be on Mon or Fri as much (3-day weekend perception).
This really depends on where you work. My wife's department is cutting their lease on an entire floor of office space and everyone will permanently be working from home 4 days/week. Everyone I know with a white collar job will be permanently working from home much more after COVID.
After a year and a half, people have gotten very proficient working from home. Capitalism is survival of the fittest and working from home saves overhead on office space, utilities, supplies, parking, etc. Companies already outsource manufacturing to China, so why not outsource white collar jobs to Indiana?
Also, I get that collaboration may be easier in person, but most people I know don't really 'like' or trust their co-workers. 'Toxic work places,' which can be caused by just a handful of people, are massive drags on office productivity and employee retention. It's a problem that a lot of corporations have been struggling to solve for a long time, and everyone I know has said it's a lot easier to manage the gossip and politics working from home, which objectively increases productivity.
I don't think WFH will be as prevalent in a year or so, but for a big chunk of the market, it'll be permanent.
I don't think this will kill business travel, but it'll definitely change it. I doubt a company will chance a million dollar business deal on a Zoom call. I do think some meetings will be handled over Zoom instead, but I also think a lot more people will get jobs that allow them to 'super commute,' because it'd be cheaper to fly from Rochester to NYC twice a month than to live in NYC.