Originally Posted by
rickair7777
Wouldn't worry about that, it's always been that way and somehow there's still a niche for career/professional CFIs.
1. Not all students pursue commercial aviation.
2. Not all commercial pilots pursue airlines.
3. Not all pilots complete training.
4. Pilots need BFRs, IPCs, club/insurance checkouts, etc
5. At some schools, insurance requires dual for some training which is technically FAA-legal to solo (IMC, ME, XC)
Also the *minimum* dual given is nowhere near the realistic dual-given to get most students from zero to CFI.
Also most people start with about 300 hours from their own training, so they only need 1200 hours instructor time (less for R-ATP).
Also most people acquire a few extra hours along the way doing ferry flights, odd jobs, fun flying, etc.
I see what you're saying, but my point was that there'll be a real bottle neck in a few years to get from 250ish to 1,500 hours. Most CPLs with 121 aspirations would probably prefer to fly pipeline, charter, 135 corporate in a Cirrus, etc, but the majority of jobs available for CPLs are as CFIs, so that's why so many people do it. CFIs typically cobble together their hours from #1-5, but that still requires a lot of people who won't make it to the airlines through what is currently the most popular avenue.
1) I think this number is fixed, regardless of airline demand
2) Same as #1
3) Sadly, this is currently how CFIs get most of their hours. Maybe more airline hopefuls would mean more washouts
4) This is a fixed number and just supplements CFI flying, if you want 1,500 hours in <10 years
5) Same as #4
Maybe the 'standard pathway' of the future will be buy a cheap 152, fly it for 1,000 hours for roughly $70k of gas and half an overhaul, then sell it to the next guy, but I digress. The issue is there won't be a huge change in the demand for CFI jobs. If more CFIs are needed to train new airline hopefuls, then what happens to the trainees when they get their ratings and a dozen of them are competing for the CFI job? Maybe a few fail out, one gets a pipeline job, but what about the other 8 guys?
Like I said, if this were my problem and I had the power to make decisions, I'd be lobbying the FAA for a quicker path to get pilots from CPL to ATP, because it's going to cause a shortage further down the logistics chain.