Originally Posted by
Hedley
The demand for labor at the regionals will be reduced somewhat as airlines phase out the 50 seat aircraft since replacement aircraft are not available. The regional model will be left with a few 550’s for United, and everyone else operating the existing 70/76 seat aircraft. “The pilot shortage is real this time” narrative and shiny jets will attract people to enter this profession just like it always has. Most of us didn’t get into this due to good working conditions all the way up the ladder, we did it because we wanted what was possible if we made the climb.
Aside from the fact that the 550 is a total joke - kneecapped by scope with its reduced MGTOW - bringing the regional-type flying back to the majors isn’t a bad idea. I know on paper the solution is simple: bring it all in-house. That’s what they keep talking about in endeavor forums with flow and something about a DL contract having 900 rates. Anyway, in practice it would be a nightmare. Onboard the thousands of pilots, majors having to shell out benefits and getting these guys on their payroll (oh the humanity), not to mention liquidating and shuttering the entire regional airline industry.
But in the long run this is ideal, albeit a pipe dream. Even CRJs are getting tired. The DC9s and MD80s were tired. The 717s are looking tired. It was always funny to me back Jen my DTW days, seeing us doing a route on a CRJ and landing at an outstation, only for a DL 717 to push back and fly back to the base we just departed from. I’ve heard all sorts of stories like...Western 727s flying into Butte. And I frequently see a mainline plane show up in places like MFR and EUG and countless other places that usually see regionals.
If we all got got absorbed into majors, I would be absolutely over the moon. I couldn’t care less what I fly, but getting the pay and benefits of a major is what we all want. The future is already creeping upon us and Covid accelerated that. If A220s and EJet E2s could be built fast enough, they could erase the regional game overnight. They could, and they should, even though it’ll never happen. Again I don’t care what equipment I fly, but an A220 has some serious SJS appeal and I’d love it.
Anyway. I agree, the whole 50 seater market is done for sooner than later. The E145s and 200s are next on the chopping block. Skywest might mange to keep a few for their prorate flying to podunk USA, but the rest need to go. The rest of the CRJs are close behind, excluding a handful of next gen 900s that are only a few years old. But when you look at the fuel burn of a RJ versus A220s and the NEOs, there’s a clear winner. You can’t ever really beat the fuel economy of a 25 year old fully-paid-off-years-ago 200 burning 1200 per side, but no one will be sad to see them go. But when you see a CRJ900 burning 1800 lbs/side and an A220 doing similar (based on figures I’ve tried to look up in the past, correct me if I’m wrong), the A220 and E2 just look better from a passenger and an operator standpoint.