Your methodology is flawed. It seems to be based on an assumption that AA will only hire enough bodies to cover mandatory retirements in 2022 (~600), assuming that no one checks out before 65, and that AA doesn’t try to grow back to its pre-March 2020 size. Frankly, if we assume that AA is going to go back to hiring 900-1000 a year to remain competitive, our flow is closer to 19-20/month based on our current list and LOA 18-01.

Nothing is stopping anyone here from applying to another legacy and getting hired if they can present a competitive application (undergrad degree, command time, union or volunteer work, sweeteners like a masters or LCA time, etc.). Or chuck your spot at a global network carrier and go to a ULCC or ACMI. Whatever works for you and your career goals. Either way, that non-interview/no degree required flow is way more of a guarantee in life than someone at another contract carrier has.