Originally Posted by
uavking
Your methodology is flawed. It seems to be based on an assumption that AA will only hire enough bodies to cover mandatory retirements in 2022 (~600), assuming that no one checks out before 65, and that AA doesn’t try to grow back to its pre-March 2020 size. Frankly, if we assume that AA is going to go back to hiring 900-1000 a year to remain competitive, our flow is closer to 19-20/month based on our current list and LOA 18-01.
Nothing is stopping anyone here from applying to another legacy and getting hired if they can present a competitive application (undergrad degree, command time, union or volunteer work, sweeteners like a masters or LCA time, etc.). Or chuck your spot at a global network carrier and go to a ULCC or ACMI. Whatever works for you and your career goals. Either way, that non-interview/no degree required flow is way more of a guarantee in life than someone at another contract carrier has.
The best thing flow offers is constant movement at the top. Even though I have some pretty critical things to say about Envoy and AAG, the flow is still a very valuable thing for them, and I will never be a flow hater like some jealous outsiders are.
The problem they were building was that you flow 20 a month but hire 60. With the average outside attrition, it means every 2 weeks increases flow time by about 1 month for a new hire. So mathematically the flow isn't as valuable for a new hire today, as it was for 2016 hires who will still flow in 6-6.5 years even with the COVID pause.