View Single Post
Old 02-21-2008 | 02:17 AM
  #88  
SaltyDog's Avatar
SaltyDog
Gets Weekends Off
 
Joined: Dec 2005
Posts: 1,899
Likes: 0
From: Leftof longitudinal
Default

Originally Posted by daytonaflyer
Wrong Wrong Wrong Wrong!
In 1998, the average price of a gallon of gas was $1.20.
In 2004, the average price of a gallon of gas was $1.85.
In 2007, the average price of a gallon of gas was $3.00.

In 2007 the price of gas was 2.5 times what it was in 1998.
It was also 1.7 times the price that it was just three years ago, in 2004.
The demand for oil has not risen 70% in the last three years.
Don't be ridiculous!
Not that linear or simple or exclusive. World Oil consumption though has exponentially increased in the last several years. As I posted earlier, Refinery production is strained and has alot to do with price at pump. Demand is not exclusively unrefined crude. You forget price is affected by refined petroleum products (not just gasoline and jet fuel) in the petrochemical market. The US uses about 9 million barrels gasoline per day (9 mbd) with about 21 mbd oil demand.

Other things effecting price for example.....Venezuela is jacking with the market as well and is our fourth largest source of imports by using Petroleos de Venezuela SA, the state oil company, to cut off sales of crude, gasoline and diesel to Exxon Mobil Corp. in retaliation for the freezing of $12 billion in assets in a legal dispute. ...
"OPEC rejected calls from U.S. President George W. Bush at its last meeting on Feb. 1 to boost production to help ease oil prices. The group instead maintained its output ceiling at 29.673 million barrels a day for 12 of its members"
and
From November 2007: http://www.nytimes.com/2007/11/07/bu.../07energy.html
"China’s and India’s surging fuel consumption poses a growing challenge to the world’s energy systems and, unless curbed, will strain global oil trade, push up prices ....Strong demand has helped push oil prices to a series of records in recent weeks. Oil settled in New York yesterday at a new high of $96.70 a barrel. Prices are closing in on a record level, adjusted for inflation, of $101.70 a barrel in April 1980. "

In 2004 China's oil imports had doubled since 1999, and had surged nearly 40% in the first half of 2004 alone. Their economy has
"transformed China from an oil exporter to a major importer. While China was a net petroleum exporter as recently as 1992, its imports reached 33 percent of consumption in 2002. In 2005, China imported about 40 percent of its more-than-seven mbd oil needs, and, in the first five months of 2006, imports were up 18 percent over the same period in the previous year. Conclusion

Oil prices have increased substantially over the past five years. While supply factors have had some impact, increased demand, especially from China, also has played a major role. Simple supply-demand calculations indicate that oil prices would be about 16.1 percent lower if demand growth in the United States, China and India had been half of what it actually was since 2001.

The IEA predicted last year that global energy demand would increase by 53 percent between 2006 and 2030. More than 70 percent of this increase is expected to come from the developing world, particularly from China and India. It seems likely, then, that the growth of these Asian economies will continue to significantly influence oil prices for many years."

See http://stlouisfed.org/publications/r...il_prices.html

Last edited by SaltyDog; 02-21-2008 at 02:47 AM.
Reply