Originally Posted by
Proximity
Been doing some napkin math:
Retirements:
2021: 67
2022: 126
2023: 174
Aircraft Orders / Retirements / Net Gain
2022: 104 / 15 (estimate) / 89
2023: 100 / 30 (estimate) / 70
Additional Pilots Required (2021 hiring folded into 2022 estimates):
2022 - (89 * 13) + (67 + 126) = 1,350
2023 - (70 * 13) + 174 = 1,084
Currently we have 9100 pilots.
Hypothetical seniority of a very pessimistic 2014 hire today - 65%
At the end of 2022 - 57%
At the end of 2023 - 50%
By the end of 2023 we should be upgrading pilots hired in 2017, or 6 year upgrades. I'm going to assume if times are good, the most junior captain will 62% seniority.
Didn't the 8K that came out yesterday say that the net increase in fleet size will be 35 airplanes in 2022, and that we will be retiring about 300 -700s per year for the foreseeable future. So no ANNOUNCED Net fleet growth beyond next year's 35 airplanes?
Are you counting all of the options in those fleet numbers? I appreciate the optimism but with options... something something counting chickens before they hatch.
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