Originally Posted by
pitchattitude
You, as well as any, know that the five year flow is a fantasy. I know you’re not still at Envoy so I know you haven’t been reading Ric’s propaganda and don’t believe it anyway.
If Covid hadn’t happened, there WOULD have been a VERY small group that would have flowed in five years. And after that it is a mathematical impossibility for it to continue. Hiring more than flowing leads to longer and longer flow times.
I get almost everything they send of importance, indirectly of course. Legal action can take years, so careful documentation of events and activity is important. Example, they used to get ****ed and vindictive when I'd say things like calling them stupid for closing Miami and New York and that they'd have to reopen NY within a year, and Miami within three. They used to get ****ed and vindictive when told their policies were leading the operation in an unsafe direction.... (we see how that turned out), they got ****ed over me telling guys to protect their tickets because they had wrongly suspended with pay and removed a crew over bug splatter that a ground crew had reported as them ignoring a bird strike....
Litterally 80% of the MEC at the time told Pedro when he was new in 2013 that when Winkley left VP of Flight Ops, not to put RW in that spot. We told him then that he wasn't the right guy, that he'd sacrifice safety for profit, was too egotistical and unwilling to admit and correct mistakes, that he takes things personally and is very vindictive..... yep, they ended up right where we told them he'd take them.
The flow was approaching the 5-5.5 year mark when Covid hit. If Covid had not hit, Envoy would have been flowing pilots at about 5-5.5 years time in service.... then, with the newer slower flow, those times would start climbing again.
They will do what they have to in order to keep the flow at or around 5 years. Do not forget attrition will pick up to a furious pace as the shortage worsens also, many more will jump ship to other carriers long before flowing. Regionals like Gojets will be toast and their pilots left to recycle themselves. In fact, times will get tough for all the contract/vendor companies. They have to generate a profit or go bankrupt. They can't afford to keep raising pilot pay. The WO carriers are run as cost centers more than functioning airlines meant to generate a profit. As a result, they can throw increased flow for free, and raise wages to run the WO at a loss, while still generating profits at the mainline.
The regional industry will contract more over the next several years. Pilots will be going directly from University/College straight into an LCC. Look at Frontier, they are already taking Embry Riddle graduates straight from school. It's happening already.