Originally Posted by
sanicom3205
Why is it being billed as negative? Because they said they saw the way to turn this black swan event into a win. They laid out how they planned to capitalize on opportunities on the back side of the pandemic. They then turned around and did the exact opposite of the plan they very publicly laid out. How can you bill that as anything but negative?
Excess bookings due to cheaper airfare than the market demands is a failure, considering there is an entire section of our company devoted to analyzing ticket prices. (but even for that point, you'd have to disregard that airfare was rising for the summer starting months ago). Why are we the only ones in the news for mass cancellations - could it be because we were the only ones who were not prepared? Could being the only major who furloughed play a part?
Just to be clear, you're saying that AA was right in holding off on training pilots so they wouldn't waste money... just in case they had to be the only major airline to furlough ~again~ during the recovery portion of the pandemic? Even in light of the fact that we are cancelling dozens of flights daily in excess of a month due to lack of pilots - even though we have hundreds of pilots who have been sitting home for 8 months on the government's dime?
Forgive me if I'm wrong, but it seems like you're defending their actions even though they went the opposite direction of industry peers. We are now suffering due to those decisions, while our peers are now. I guess I'm just interested in how you can possibly see any positives here
I don’t think its a positive, but I think the only real way to criticize is sim utilization if the choke point is pilots. Speculating demand and missing by 1-3% is not a failure in my opinion.
If you buy stock and it goes up, it’s a negative because you should have bought more?
They built June block hours in April, underestimated, and have upguaged and added segments until they discovered a supply chain bottle neck.
If they are building August block hours right now they are speculating demand. Will demand curve accelerate or shallow out. Do you have facts that show under estimating is more costly than overestimating.
Did they call and say they thought they were being aggressive building June block hours because everyone was saying in April the CDC jumped the gun and was irresponsible for saying you could ditch the mask indoors.
They had 45B is gross revenue in 2019, 17B in 2020. Its reasonably difficult to guess where 2021 revenue will be.