If the order turns out to be the largest in value, then it should have quite a few widebodies on top of the rumored NB numbers. When I first saw the articles leaking out I laughingly assumed it would be for hundreds of RJs.


After thinking it over, I'm not laughing anymore at the idea of the largest order in sheer numbers. So far as I know, our contract talks stalled pre-pandemic because we wouldn't budge on scope, and I think management might finally have gotten the memo. Our 320/319/700 fleet is getting very long in the tooth along with our -200/145 50 seaters (that Scott himself said were probably on the way out after the pandemic). Buying -7 Maxes to replace 319s/700 may be in the cards for commonality... but it doesn't solve management's increasingly dire 50 seater problem.


There is a case to be made for buying -195E2s to unlock scope too, but I am skeptical so I won't dig into it. On the other hand buying 88 A-220 100s to unlock more 175s could account for 160ish orders alone. And, there has long been speculation that a further stretch of the A-220 will happen eventually - it would be just about a perfect replacement for our 150 seat 320s. A-220 300s to replace 319s/700s and A-220 500s to replace 320s could add another hundred or more orders. I think the rumored MAXes will be ordered to cover domestic flying from 166-190 seats. Meanwhile due to Boeing's failures I think the ship has sailed on a direct 767 replacement, that the additional rumored XLRs at about 190 seats will cover most of the 767-300 flying (214 seats) and 787s will cover the rest. If we've found a way to ditch the 350s then perhaps we'll announce 777x orders, I'm sure Boeing is offering great prices. Or, perhaps we'll accelerate the 350s to replace our PW-777s.


Anyways, when I consider all of the above and how low prices must be right now, I think including RJs in the mix we could easily order more than 450 jets to be delivered over the next decade. Tuesday will tell.


Side note - I know the 175 E2 MTOW is too heavy for current scope. But I'm wondering if we'd repeat what we did with the CRJ-550 and buy them with fewer seats and a reduced MTOW. We generally wouldn't need all that range.